We were in Keystone yesterday and the ski across bridge is getting close – AWESOME!!!!!  You will be able to ski across into The Gondola in River Run Village this season!!  I went down and saw it.  I did not have my camera or I would have snaped a shot for you, but it is awesome!  Looking forward to SNOW – say it with me now – “SNOW – please! Lots of SNOW!!”

July 31, 2009 Reports are Published

Below is a ‘first look’ at the economic indicators for early August.  In addition to the Economic Indicators, which will be published this afternoon, be sure to watch for the Mountain Travel Monitor, which we will publish with our Industry-Wide reports late this week/early next week and includes a full-scale review of the current situation in the Mtn Travel Industry. 

Some early highlights:

• The Consumer Confidence Index, having shown consistent upward trends since February, has decreased in July for the 2^nd consecutive month, reversing the trend.  The decline is attributed to ongoing consumer concerns about unemployment and the overall economy.  The Consumer Confidence survey preceded the unexpected positive Unemployment figures released late last week. 
•  View the Consumer Confidence Index here.

• The Consumer Price Index increased sharply in June for the 6^th consecutive month, driven in large part by the increases in Crude Oil prices.  Despite the consistent increases the economy remains in a deflationary state for the 4th consecutive month, negatively impacting both corporate and private Consumers’ income.  �
   
• Click here for Consumer Price Index
• The Unemployment Rate decreased somewhat in July from 9.5% to 9.4% nationally with 247,000 jobs lost compared to 514,000 new jobs created.  This is the 1^st decrease in the Unemployment Rate since April 2008.
• Click here for the U.S. Unemployment Rate

Summit County Market Update, July 2009

Summer in Summit County is upon us in its entirety and much like the jump in visitors walking, shopping, and dining through town, we are seeing an upswing in real estate activity. The traffic through our offices and property viewings remain strong and have shown an increase compared to this past winter season. Summit County’s residential transactions in February and March totaled 98, increasing to 135 in April and May. Our website visits have increased more than 20% in the past six months. It is evident that people are interested and seriously looking at mountain real estate.  

I am not implying that our market has fully recovered to the same level of transactions that we saw two years ago, but it does mean that buyers’ interest and confidence seems to gradually be returning. A “buyers’ market” has emerged, and those buyers are looking for incredible value – the deal of the century. Recent price adjustments have created many opportunities for smart buyers to purchase property at prices not seen in a while.

In addition, for buyers with ample cash or equity available for a down payment on a home, there are great financing packages from which to choose. Although interest rates have slightly increased most recently, they remain historically low, making for an even more inspiring reason to buy now.

Because buyers have an abundant amount of properties from which to choose, strong competition among sellers has developed. In addition to aggressive pricing, properties must be in excellent condition to catch buyers’ attention. This is where we are seeing offers being made and deals coming together. For those sellers who do have to sell or who are uncomfortable with discounted pricing, it may be beneficial to delay timing and put their home on the market when there is less competition. Making your home available for rent is a good income generating alternative.

Over half of Summit County real estate buyers come from the Front Range (Denver and Boulder area).  In June, Today Show real estate contributor, Barbara Corcoran, shared that Denver is poised to recover first, before any other city in the country, from the current market slowdown. This is good news for the Summit County real estate market. The lifestyle of mountain living is enduring and will always attract buyers. 2009 will continue to present people with unique and perhaps once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to purchase a mountain home.

Darryl Nolz, Associate Broker, Slifer Smith & Frampton Real Estate – Summit County, Colorado

“STOPLIGHT” REACTION TO ECONOMY IN MOUNTAIN TRAVEL

Red light.  Green light.  Yellow light.  “As the economic news remains mostly unfavorable, mountain destinations moving closer to their prime booking season are tracking the indicators and wavering between moments of seeing a green light to get going and then a red light to stop,” says Ralf Garrison, author of the monthly Monitor produced by the Mountain Travel Research Program (MTRiP).* Last month’s Monitor reported on some positive indicators pointing at a move from a yellow to green light but this month’s data has lapsed back into a red light mode says  Garrison.

According to the MTRiP mountain market indicators as of June 30, the “red light” indicators for mountain travel are consistent with national trends.  Business for June followed the winter pattern with low volume and less strength than last year.  Occupancy was down 14.5 percent and room rates were down 10.2 percent compared to last June.  Reservations taken in June for arrivals in June-November were down 15.7 percent which mimics the booking patterns for the past six months while short-lead, “last minute” bookings were flat, or about even, with last June’s figures.

“Although reservations for the 4^th of July holiday brought a welcome bump to mountain communities, the much-anticipated improvements in the market didn’t really materialize,” observed Garrison.  “In our view, the positive signs in the market through the spring didn’t sustain their momentum into this summer and we’re seeing more red lights than green lights this month.”

MTRiP’s forward-looking projections revealed that summer business (May-October) continues to show significant declines from last summer to-date and no evidence of optimistic consumers.  Reservations reveal dramatically decreased occupancy—down 24 percent—and a 15 percent decrease in room rates.  Like June’s booking results, there was no evidence in the data that short-term bookings are filling lodging space as is more typically seen during summer months at mountain resorts.

The data further revealed that consumer confidence and positive market performance shifted from green to red on the MTRiP indicator graphic, amid growing concerns that a Fall 2009 recovery may not materialize.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued to react quickly but indecisively to positive and negative news.  The Consumer Confidence Index reacted to both positive and negative economic news and forecasts.  After three consecutive months of increases including a rebound from an all-time low of 25.0 points in February, the CCI declined 5.6 points in June to 49.3 points.  And finally, the Travel Price Index which had been relatively stable for several months during the winter due to sharp declines in lodging rate, airfares, and gasoline prices, continued to react to overall increases in travel-related costs.  Crude oil prices, while well below 2008 record levels, have increased steadily in the past six months and are being reflected as an upward force on the TPI.  Additionally, discounts being offered industry-wide on lodging, while still dramatic, have settled down somewhat from the 50-60% discounts offered at the beginning of the financial crisis.  In May the TPI increased 0.5 percent, the fifth consecutive month monthly increase, bringing the index to 239.9 points, down just 2.1 percent from November 2007.

“Despite the need for caution based on all the indicators, it appears that this will be a “less-bad” summer for mountain communities than last winter,” said Garrison.  “Certain travel segments seem to be holding steadier than others:  family vacations, reunions, special occasions, and ‘one-tank’ vacations are doing comparatively well while luxury, group, and conference travel segments are weakest.”

“MTRiP’s recommendations to mountain communities are for continued diligence until market conditions provide some relief and we can shift to a green light,” concluded Garrison.

*Data is derived from a sample of 216 property management companies in 15 mountain destination communities across Colorado, Utah, California, and British Columbia.  Data is representative of a comprehensive cross-section of the community and may not reflect the entire mountain destination travel industry.

The June 30, 2009 Reservations Activity Outlook and Daily Occupancy Report . 

Below is a ‘first look’ at the economic indicators for early July.  In addition to the Economic Indicators, which will be published Friday, be sure to watch for the Mountain Travel Monitor, which mtrip will publish with there Industry-Wide reports next week and includes a full-scale review of the current situation in the Mtn Travel Industry. 

Some early highlights:

§  The Consumer Confidence Index, which has increased in each of the past 3 months, declined somewhat in June as Consumers reflected a negative sentiment toward Employment and Business trends. 

• �
  • View the Consumer Confidence Index here.
• The Consumer Price Index increased in May for the 5^th consecutive month.  Despite this increase the economy remains deflationary for the 3^rd consecutive month, negatively impacting both corporate and private Consumers’ income.    

§  Click here for Consumer Price Index

• The Unemployment Rate rose somewhat in June from 9.4% to 9.5% nationally with 200,000 jobs lost.  This is the 9^th consecutive increase in the Unemployment Rate.

§  Click here for the U.S. Unemployment Rate

This summary is one of several initiatives that we are taking to help provide vital market data to those of you who make strategic decisions for your resort communities and their tourism-dependent businesses 

As always, we appreciate your support and are interested in your suggestions and feedback; let us know what we can do to help.

WHISTLER, B.C. — The North American ski industry has been hit hard by the global recession and will not likely recover for another two seasons, says the chief executive of Intrawest, owner of the 2010 Winter Olympics venue Whistler Blackcomb.

Bill Jensen told a ski industry conference Tuesday that the recovery will not be V-shaped, but more “like a hockey stick” and that signs of a recovery won’t likely appear until the 2011-12 season.

He said the industry has slashed prices and sacrificed revenue gains built up over the past couple of years.

In the December-January period, Jensen said the economy was bad, but that it didn’t really hit consumers until February-March of this year.

The result, he said, was a “noticeable fall off” in revenues.

“What happened in February-March is the norm now,” Jensen said at the Canadian Ski Council’s annual conference in Whistler.

“People just don’t want to open their wallet … . What we offer isn’t something people are required to have. It’s optional.”

In fact, he said the new Peak-2-Peak gondola, which just opened at Whistler-Blackcomb, may not have be constructed had the plan been to build it this year.

“As they say, timing is everything,” Jensen told conference attendees.

The conference was focused in part on how the recession has impacted revenues in the ski industry.

However, Jensen said the economic slump isn’t the only factor behind falling revenues.

He said poor snow conditions at certain ski destinations this past season have also hit resorts hard.

The Canadian Ski Council released statistics Tuesday showing the number of skiers and snowboarders to hit Canadian slopes fell 10 per cent year-over-year to 18.4 million visitors, down from a record 20.5 million visitors in the 2007/08 season.

Jensen said some benefits of the 2010 Winter Olympics include improved infrastructure and the pride it brings local communities and athletes, but more money may not be one of them.

“There are a lot of positive things, but I don’t know if it will ever be measured in dollars,” Jensen said.

“The jury is out on whether we will experience … a longer-term sustained bump.”

Intrawest has been struggling financially since being bought in 2006 by New York-based private equity fund Fortress Investment Group LLC for US$2.8 billion in cash and debt.

The deal was a leveraged buyout with a $1.7-billion loan which came due last fall, when the financial meltdown hit.

Fortress scrambled to refinance the loan after Intrawest, which holds the debt, was pushed to the brink of creditor protection.

Intrawest is considering the sale of many of its assets to improve its balance sheet. It is reportedly in talks to sell its Sandestin Golf and Beach Resort in Florida to a local developer.

Intrawest is not expected to unload jewels such as Whistler-Blackcomb, but there is some speculation it may consider financing some of its businesses independently, such as Mont Tremblant in Quebec.

Jensen would not comment Tuesday on potential sale talks or the state of the company’s debt position.